Quick summary
Vanuatu’s official meteorology department forecasts 2-4 tropical cyclones between November 2025 and April 2026, with at least one reaching destructive Category 3 or higher. An 85% probability of La Niña conditions is shifting cyclone tracks westward directly over Vanuatu, elevating risk above the historical average of 2-3 cyclones per season. Travelers holding February-April 2026 bookings face the highest-risk window.
Standard travel insurance often excludes cyclone-specific coverage unless a “named storm” clause is included. The full risk breakdown, insurance checklist, and alternative destination options follow below.
Vanuatu sits in the crosshairs of an elevated cyclone season, with government forecasters projecting 2-4 tropical cyclones through April 2026—and at least one expected to reach Category 3 or higher with sustained winds exceeding 120 km/h. The driver is La Niña, which has an 85% probability of persisting into early 2026, pushing cyclone formation zones westward directly over Vanuatu’s islands.
The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD) issued its seasonal outlook on October 31, 2025, confirming the elevated threat. New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) independently corroborates the assessment, noting that all eight historical analogue seasons produced at least one Category 4+ cyclone in the southwest Pacific basin. For travelers with bookings between now and April 30, 2026, the question isn’t whether disruption is possible—it’s how to prepare for it.
Air Traveler Club’s travel advisory monitoring system flagged Vanuatu’s elevated cyclone risk in late October 2025, cross-referencing VMGD and NIWA outlooks to assess disruption probability for travelers departing from the US, Canada, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand.
Why February through April is the danger zone
Cyclone seasons aren’t uniform. NIWA’s analysis identifies late season—February through April 2026—as the period of highest risk for Vanuatu specifically. Early-season activity (November-January) has been relatively subdued, but La Niña’s westward displacement of warm sea surface temperatures concentrates cyclone energy closer to Vanuatu and New Caledonia as the season progresses.
The historical average for Vanuatu is 2-3 cyclones per season. This year’s forecast of 2-4 sits at the upper boundary, with the critical distinction being severity: 25-40% of all basin cyclones are expected to reach Category 3 or higher. Category 3 means sustained winds above 120 km/h—enough to cause structural damage, knock out power grids, and shut down Bauerfield International Airport (VLI) entirely.
What La Niña does to Vanuatu’s cyclone risk
La Niña cools the eastern Pacific while warming the western Pacific, shifting the South Pacific Convergence Zone closer to Vanuatu. This means cyclones that might otherwise form near Fiji or Tonga instead develop directly over or track through Vanuatu’s waters. The same pattern reduces risk for eastern Pacific islands—Fiji faces normal cyclone risk this season while Vanuatu faces elevated risk.
Travelers can access the official seasonal forecast directly through the VMGD Tropical Cyclone Outlook portal, which provides real-time updates and downloadable briefings as conditions evolve through the remaining season.
Quantifying the risk: forecast versus historical norms
| Risk Factor | 2025-2026 Forecast | Historical Average | Travel Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total cyclones near Vanuatu | 2-4 | 2-3 | Flight cancellations, resort closures |
| Severe (Category 3+) | ≥1 (25-40% of basin total) | ~1 per season | Evacuations, infrastructure damage |
| La Niña probability | 85% through early 2026 | Variable | Westward shift increases direct hits |
| Late-season peak (Feb-Apr) | Elevated | Normal | Highest disruption risk for current travelers |
The basin-wide forecast of 5-9 named tropical cyclones is actually below the long-term average of approximately 9. However, the proportion reaching severe intensity is higher than normal, and the geographic concentration over Vanuatu makes the headline number misleading. Fewer cyclones overall doesn’t mean less risk for Vanuatu—it means the cyclones that do form are more likely to be powerful and more likely to track through Vanuatu’s waters.
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The insurance gap most travelers don’t catch
Standard travel insurance does not automatically cover cyclone disruption. Many policies classify cyclones under “weather events” with broad exclusions, or require a specific named storm clause to trigger coverage for evacuation, accommodation changes, and flight rebooking costs. The distinction matters enormously when a Category 3 cyclone grounds all flights from VLI for 48-72 hours.
Travelers from Australia and New Zealand generally have stronger Pacific-specific coverage options through providers familiar with the region. US and European travelers should verify three specific provisions before departing:
- Named storm or cyclone evacuation coverage. This pays for emergency flights out of affected areas. Without it, you’re booking last-minute one-way fares at peak crisis pricing.
- Trip interruption for weather events. Covers unused accommodation, missed connections, and additional expenses when cyclones force itinerary changes. Confirm the policy doesn’t exclude “foreseeable” weather during known cyclone season.
- Cancel For Any Reason (CFAR) riders. If you want the option to cancel preemptively based on cyclone forecasts rather than waiting for a named storm to hit, CFAR provides 50-75% reimbursement regardless of reason—but must be purchased within 14-21 days of initial trip deposit.
Government travel advisories from DFAT (Australia), SafeTravel (New Zealand), and the US State Department provide country-specific insurance guidance and real-time cyclone alerts for Vanuatu. For travelers weighing the broader cost of flights to the Pacific, our analysis of why Asia-Pacific flight prices remain elevated in 2026 explains the demand and capacity dynamics that make rebooking during disruptions particularly expensive.
When the forecast changes the math
Not every cyclone directly impacts Vanuatu. VMGD notes that roughly 50% of cyclones forming in nearby waters track close enough to cause direct disruption on the islands. The remaining systems pass through adjacent ocean areas, producing heavy rain and rough seas but avoiding the worst infrastructure damage.
Three scenarios could reduce the current risk level. First, La Niña may weaken faster than forecast during March-April 2026, pulling cyclone formation zones eastward and away from Vanuatu. Second, cooler-than-expected sea surface temperatures would suppress cyclone intensity even if formation numbers remain elevated. Third, cyclones forming outside Vanuatu’s immediate waters may track south toward New Zealand rather than west across the island chain.
Conversely, warmer sea surface temperatures independent of La Niña could push basin-wide cyclone counts above the 5-9 forecast, increasing Vanuatu’s exposure beyond current projections. NIWA recommends monitoring updated outlooks monthly through the remaining season.
Alternatives and contingency planning
Fiji faces normal cyclone risk this season—a direct consequence of La Niña shifting activity westward away from the eastern Pacific. For travelers whose Vanuatu plans are flexible, Fiji offers comparable South Pacific experiences with measurably lower disruption probability through April 2026. New Caledonia sits in the elevated zone alongside Vanuatu, making it a less effective alternative.
Airlines serving Vanuatu—including Air Vanuatu, Fiji Airways, and Aircalin—typically issue rebooking waivers when named tropical cyclones threaten operations. These waivers allow date changes without fees but don’t cover accommodation or alternative routing costs. Confirm specific cyclone policies with your carrier before departure. Travelers monitoring airline promotions and policy updates can catch rebooking flexibility windows that airlines announce during active weather events.
If proceeding with Vanuatu travel during the remaining season, book accommodation with free cancellation through at least 48 hours before arrival. Monitor VMGD’s website and Pacific weather services daily starting one week before departure. Have a backup destination identified with available flights from your origin airport.
Questions? Answers.
What does Category 3+ mean for flights at Bauerfield Airport?
Category 3 cyclones produce sustained winds above 120 km/h, which triggers complete flight suspensions at Bauerfield International Airport (VLI). Historical events show closures lasting 24-72 hours for Category 3, potentially longer for Category 4-5. All inbound and outbound commercial flights cease, and the airport may sustain runway or terminal damage requiring additional recovery time.
Is Vanuatu’s cyclone season riskier than usual or just normal?
Slightly above normal. The historical average is 2-3 cyclones per season near Vanuatu; the 2025-2026 forecast is 2-4. The critical difference is the 85% La Niña probability concentrating activity directly over Vanuatu rather than spreading it across the broader basin. All eight NIWA analogue seasons produced at least one Category 4+ cyclone somewhere in the southwest Pacific.
Can I still get travel insurance if I book now during cyclone season?
Yes, but coverage options narrow once a named storm forms. Purchase insurance before any cyclone is officially named to ensure full coverage. Once a storm is named, most insurers exclude it as a “known event.” Cancel For Any Reason (CFAR) riders must typically be purchased within 14-21 days of your initial trip deposit regardless of weather conditions.
Which nearby destinations have lower cyclone risk right now?
Fiji faces normal cyclone risk this season due to La Niña shifting activity westward. Tonga and Samoa also sit in the reduced-risk eastern zone. New Caledonia is not a safer alternative—it shares Vanuatu’s elevated risk profile under current La Niña conditions. Australia’s tropical north (Cairns, Whitsundays) has its own cyclone exposure but benefits from more robust infrastructure and evacuation options.
How do I monitor cyclone threats from overseas before my trip?
The VMGD website publishes real-time tropical cyclone warnings and seasonal updates accessible globally. Subscribe to Pacific weather alert services for email notifications. Check your government’s travel advisory portal—DFAT Smartraveller (Australia), SafeTravel (New Zealand), or US State Department—for country-specific warnings that trigger insurance provisions. Begin daily monitoring one week before departure.
Will airlines refund my ticket if a cyclone cancels my flight?
Airlines serving Vanuatu typically issue rebooking waivers for named cyclones, allowing free date changes. Full refunds depend on fare class and carrier policy—flexible fares qualify more readily than basic economy. If the airline cancels the flight, you’re generally entitled to a refund or rerouting under the carrier’s conditions of carriage. Voluntary cancellations before a named storm forms rarely qualify for airline refunds, making CFAR insurance the safer option.
