Quick summary
UK airlines have formally requested the Civil Aviation Authority suspend compensation rules for flight cancellations up to 14 days before departure, citing jet fuel shortages stemming from the seven-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz. British Airways, TUI, and easyJet face heightened cancellation risks on Spain and Portugal routes this summer as Europe’s jet fuel buffer shrinks to six weeks and prices have doubled since early March 2026.
Passengers would still receive full refunds under the proposal, but lose £220–£520 statutory compensation. The request signals carriers expect significant disruption through peak summer season despite government claims of adequate supply.
Airlines seek regulatory relief as fuel crisis escalates
Airlines UK — representing British Airways, TUI, easyJet, and Virgin Atlantic — submitted a dossier to ministers and the CAA this week demanding emergency measures to manage mounting costs ahead of potential jet fuel shortages. The trade body wants UK261 compensation rules suspended for cancellations made two weeks or more before departure, though passengers would retain refund rights.
The request follows warnings from the International Energy Agency that Europe has roughly six weeks of jet fuel stock remaining, with shortages possible in under three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Iran shut the waterway in early March following US and Israeli military action — the body of water normally carries 20% of global oil transit and 75% of Europe’s jet fuel supplies.
Aviation fuel prices have doubled since the closure began. Japan Airlines imposed a £260 surcharge on London–Tokyo tickets, while Scandinavian Airlines became the first major European carrier to cancel flights citing unsustainable fuel costs.
UK airlines have hedged fuel contracts that provide temporary cost protection, but industry sources indicate carriers want flexibility to cancel unprofitable routes without forfeiting valuable slots at Heathrow and Gatwick. Spain and Portugal — among the UK’s most popular summer destinations — operate on thin leisure margins that evaporate when fuel costs spike.
| Carrier | Weekly frequency | Primary routes | Aircraft type |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Airways | 21 | LGW–MAD | A320 family |
| easyJet | 28 | LGW–PMI/FAO | A320neo |
| TUI | 14 | MAN/BFS–PMI/FAO | B787-8 |
The UK Government acknowledged it is “planning for a range of contingencies” but maintains airlines are “not currently seeing a shortage of jet fuel.” That messaging contrasts sharply with warnings from Brussels, where EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen told media that “many people’s holidays will be affected, either by flight cancellations or very, very expensive tickets.”
What the compensation suspension would mean
Under current UK261 rules, passengers receive £220 for short-haul cancellations and up to £520 for long-haul if the airline cancels fewer than seven days before departure and cannot prove extraordinary circumstances. The Airlines UK proposal would eliminate compensation for cancellations made 14 days out, though full ticket refunds would remain mandatory.
An industry source indicated the CAA has authority to declare the fuel shortage an “extraordinary circumstance” — a designation that would shield airlines from compensation liability even under existing law. The formal request for a 14-day window suggests carriers want certainty to restructure summer schedules without legal exposure.
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Historical precedent offers limited guidance. During 2019 Strait of Hormuz tensions, jet fuel prices spiked 20% over two months, prompting carriers like Lufthansa to impose £50–100 surcharges on long-haul routes and cancel roughly 5% of Middle East flights. UK summer fares to Spain rose 15% year-over-year, but no mass cancellations occurred as supplies rerouted via alternative tankers. This closure represents the first total blockade since the 1980s Tanker War — a fundamentally different scenario.
Searches for typical summer routes like London to Madrid currently show highly elevated prices or limited availability, with surcharges of around £260 reported on other long-haul routes. British Airways operates 21 weekly flights from Gatwick to Madrid using A320-family aircraft, while easyJet runs 28 weekly frequencies to Palma and Faro on A320neo equipment. TUI maintains 14 weekly departures from Manchester and Belfast to Spanish and Portuguese beach destinations using B787-8 widebodies integrated into package holiday operations.
Analysts suggest that if the CAA responds to the Airlines UK dossier by late April, it could enable airlines to trim 10–20% of flights to Spain and Portugal without slot forfeiture, potentially raising fares 25–50% for summer peak. The industry is watching for a CAA response, with some warning that approval could fundamentally reshape passenger rights during supply crises.
What to do if you have a summer booking
The compensation suspension request signals carriers expect significant disruption through peak season — here is the priority order for protecting your trip.
- Check flight status immediately: Visit your airline’s website (ba.com/liveflightstatus, easyjet.com/flight-tracker, tui.co.uk/flight-info) and confirm your booking remains active. Airlines typically notify passengers 14 days before cancellations, but proactive checking reveals schedule changes earlier.
- Document current fare levels: Screenshot your booking confirmation and current fares for the same route. If your flight is cancelled and rebooking costs surge, this evidence supports claims for fare difference reimbursement under EU261 alternative transport provisions.
- Request flexible rebooking now: Call your airline’s customer service line before cancellations cascade. British Airways (0344 493 0787), easyJet (0330 365 5000), and TUI (0203 451 2688) can move bookings to less-affected dates or routes while inventory remains available.
- Consider package alternatives: If you booked flights separately from accommodation, explore converting to a package via tui.co.uk or ba.com/holidays. Package operators absorb fuel surcharges more effectively than point-to-point tickets and offer ATOL financial protection.
- Monitor CAA guidance: Visit caa.co.uk weekly for official updates on fuel supply status and any regulatory changes to compensation rules. The agency must publish formal notices before suspending UK261 provisions.
Watch: The CAA’s response to the Airlines UK dossier, expected by month-end, will determine whether carriers gain regulatory cover to restructure summer schedules without compensation liability.
Questions? Answers.
Will I still get a refund if my flight is cancelled under the proposed rule change?
Yes. The Airlines UK proposal maintains full refund rights — passengers would receive 100% of the ticket price back if the airline cancels. The change only eliminates the £220–£520 statutory compensation payment currently required for cancellations fewer than 14 days before departure.
Which routes face the highest cancellation risk?
Leisure routes to Spain and Portugal from UK regional airports carry the highest risk because they operate on thin profit margins that disappear when fuel costs double. High-frequency business routes like London–Madrid may see frequency reductions rather than outright cancellations, as airlines consolidate passengers onto fewer daily flights.
How long will the fuel shortage last?
Duration depends entirely on Strait of Hormuz reopening. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen stated that if the waterway reopens immediately, summer holidays would likely proceed with elevated prices but minimal cancellations. However, even in that scenario, the price crisis would persist for months as tanker rerouting adds 2–4 weeks to delivery times and restocking depletes reserves.
Are flights from EU airports affected the same way?
Yes. The jet fuel shortage affects all European carriers equally, as 75% of the continent’s supply transits the Strait of Hormuz. However, passengers departing EU airports retain full EU261 compensation rights unless individual member states grant regulatory relief — the UK’s potential rule suspension would not apply to flights originating in Dublin, Amsterdam, or Paris.
