Quick summary
Ryanair has warned that Middle East conflict and jet fuel shortages could force flight cancellations and surcharges across its European network this summer. Brent crude prices have surged above $110 per barrel following attacks on oil infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, doubling jet fuel costs. Shell’s CEO says Europe could face fuel rationing by late April 2026, mirroring export bans already imposed in China. Analysts from RBC and Deutsche Bank have cut Ryanair and IAG forecasts by roughly 10% due to sustained fuel price hikes.
Passengers holding summer 2026 bookings on Ryanair‘s intra-Europe routes face the highest cancellation risk. European carriers including Smartwings have already added fuel surcharges, and Australia’s jet fuel stockpiles sit at just 29–32 days — well below the International Energy Agency’s 90-day safety standard.
The warning comes as Middle East hostilities have choked global jet fuel supply, with attacks targeting oil facilities in the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Iran, and Iraq. The Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for 20% of the world’s oil — remains closed, forcing tankers onto longer routes and driving up transport costs.
Ryanair operates over 3,000 weekly flights across Europe from bases in London, Dublin, Berlin, and Barcelona. Its short-haul network is particularly vulnerable to fuel price shocks because jet fuel represents 40–50% of operating costs on routes under two hours.
Fuel surcharges have already appeared. Czech carrier Smartwings added fees to tickets last week, and the first cancellations have been reported on European routes to Asia where rerouting around conflict zones adds flight time and fuel burn.
How the fuel crisis reached Europe
The supply chain broke in stages. Attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure in early March cut production by 15%. The Strait of Hormuz closure forced tankers to reroute around Africa, adding 10–14 days to delivery times. China responded by banning jet fuel exports to protect domestic supply, triggering shortages across South and Southeast Asia.
Shell’s CEO told investors that Europe’s turn is coming. Jet fuel inventories at major European hubs are projected to fall below operational minimums by late April, according to industry logistics reports tracking the crisis. Germany and the UK are monitoring stockpiles daily.
Brent crude prices — the global benchmark — have climbed from $78 per barrel in February to over $110 today. Jet fuel, which typically trades at a $10–15 premium to crude, has seen prices nearly double in some European markets.
| Region | Stockpile days | Price increase | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 45–50 days | +95% | Shortages expected late April |
| Australia | 29–32 days | +88% | Below IEA safety standard |
| Southeast Asia | 18–22 days | +102% | Export bans active |
| North America | 65–70 days | +72% | Stable but monitoring |
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What analysts are saying
RBC Capital Markets and Deutsche Bank both cut their Ryanair and IAG target prices by approximately 10% last week, citing sustained fuel cost pressure from the Iran crisis. The downgrades assume Brent crude remains above $100 per barrel through Q3 2026.
Ryanair typically hedges 70–80% of its fuel needs six months in advance, but those contracts were locked in when crude traded at $75–80 per barrel. The unhedged portion — roughly 20–30% of summer fuel needs — now faces spot market prices that are 40% higher than budgeted.
Historical precedent offers limited comfort. During the 2019 Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks, jet fuel prices rose 20% in Europe and Ryanair added €5–10 surcharges per ticket. The crisis resolved within two months as tankers rerouted and production recovered. This time, the conflict is broader and fuel stockpiles were already tighter before hostilities began.
What to do if you have a booking
The fuel crisis is unfolding now, and Ryanair‘s summer schedule remains uncertain. Travelers with existing bookings or planning trips need to act based on their situation.
- Existing Ryanair summer 2026 booking: Check ryanair.com “Manage Booking” today for surcharges or schedule alerts. If the fuel crisis escalates and your flight is cancelled, request rebooking to easyJet or Wizz Air on the same route via Ryanair support — no fee applies under force majeure rules. Hotline: +44 1279 358438.
- Planning a new Europe trip: Avoid Ryanair short-haul routes for now. Book Lufthansa, Vueling, or easyJet alternatives on Google Flights. Monitor Brent crude prices daily — if they fall below $95 per barrel, the immediate crisis is easing.
- Currently in transit: If your Ryanair connection is delayed or cancelled at an EU hub, rebook on Wizz Air or other intra-Europe carriers at the airport desk. Claim EU261 compensation if your delay exceeds three hours — the airline desk must process this immediately.
- Europe-Asia layover bookings: Consider direct Pacific routes from North America or Australia to avoid European connection points. Airspace closures over Russia have already added 2–3 hours to Europe-Asia flights, and fuel shortages compound the problem.
Watch: Shell and German government updates on Europe jet fuel stocks are expected late April. If shortages are confirmed, Ryanair summer cancellations and surcharges become locked in. If stockpiles stabilize, expect fares to hold at current elevated levels but no mass cancellations.
Questions? Answers.
Will Ryanair cancel my summer flight?
Ryanair has not announced specific cancellations yet, but the airline warned that fuel shortages could force schedule cuts. Passengers with bookings should monitor ryanair.com daily for alerts. If Europe faces fuel rationing in late April as Shell’s CEO predicts, cancellations on lower-demand routes become likely.
Are fuel surcharges refundable if I cancel my ticket?
No. Fuel surcharges are part of the ticket price and follow the same refund rules as the base fare. If you booked a non-refundable ticket, the surcharge is also non-refundable. If Ryanair cancels your flight due to fuel shortages, you are entitled to a full refund or rebooking under EU regulations.
Which European airlines are least affected by the fuel crisis?
Airlines with higher fuel hedge coverage — typically 70% or more of their needs locked in at pre-crisis prices — face less immediate pressure. Lufthansa and British Airways historically hedge more aggressively than ultra-low-cost carriers. Check each airline’s Q1 2026 earnings reports for hedge percentages, usually disclosed in investor presentations.
How long will jet fuel prices stay this high?
That depends on Middle East conflict resolution and Strait of Hormuz reopening. The 2019 tanker attacks resolved in two months, but this crisis involves broader infrastructure damage. If the strait reopens by June 2026, prices could normalize by late summer. If hostilities continue, elevated prices persist into Q4 2026.
