Quick summary
The Philippines declared a national energy emergency on March 24, 2026, after Middle East conflict disruptions cut off 90% of the country’s oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. warned that aviation fuel shortages could ground flights at Manila (MNL) and Cebu (CEB) airports within weeks, with only 45 days of fuel reserves remaining and prices already doubled since the conflict began.
The Department of Transportation has been authorized to suspend aviation fees and ration jet fuel, but no flights have been grounded yet. Transport workers plan a two-day strike starting March 26 that could disrupt ground operations at international terminals.
A fuel crisis triggered by the escalating U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran has pushed the Philippines into emergency measures that could strand travelers at two of Southeast Asia’s busiest airports.
The executive order signed March 24 gives the Department of Energy authority to make 15% advance payments for fuel imports, curb hoarding, and redirect transport subsidies. The Department of Transportation can now suspend aviation fees and direct airlines to ration jet fuel — a power that has never been invoked in the country’s aviation history.
Travelers with bookings to or from Manila or Cebu in the next 45 days face the highest risk. Philippine Airlines, Cebu Pacific, and AirAsia Philippines operate more than 190 weekly international flights from these hubs, serving routes to North America, Europe, Australia, and across Asia.
How the fuel shortage threatens flight operations
The Philippines imports 98% of its oil from Middle Eastern suppliers, with jet fuel accounting for a significant portion of that demand. The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which most Gulf oil shipments pass — has become a flashpoint as Iran responds to coordinated strikes, disrupting tanker routes and driving fuel prices to double their pre-conflict levels.
Energy Secretary Raphael Garin announced plans to temporarily boost coal-fired power generation starting April 1, likely increasing Indonesian coal imports to offset surging liquefied natural gas costs. But aviation fuel cannot be substituted — airlines either have jet fuel or they don’t fly.
President Marcos stated plainly in a March 24 address that if aviation fuel supplies dry up, “we will have no choice but to ground flights.” The Department of Transportation has not yet issued specific guidance on which routes or carriers would be prioritized if rationing begins.
| Metric | Current status | Risk threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Oil import dependency | 98% from Middle East | Strait of Hormuz closure |
| Fuel reserves remaining | 45 days | <30 days triggers rationing |
| Fuel price increase | 100% since conflict began | Further hikes expected |
| Weekly international flights | 190+ from MNL/CEB | Cuts likely if reserves drop |
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What the emergency order changes for airlines
The one-year emergency declaration gives the government sweeping authority to intervene in fuel markets and aviation operations. Airlines can now receive priority fuel allocations, but they may also be ordered to cut frequencies or suspend routes deemed non-essential.
The order does not define “non-essential,” leaving airlines and travelers in limbo. Historically, governments prioritize international long-haul routes over domestic or regional flights during fuel crises, but the Philippines has no published protocol.
A separate complication: transport workers have called a two-day strike starting March 26 to protest fuel price hikes. The strike could disrupt bus and rail connections to Manila’s Ninoy Aquino International Airport, delaying passengers arriving for international departures. Airport operations themselves are not expected to halt, but ground handling and refueling crews may face delays.
Immediate steps for affected travelers
The Department of Energy is expected to release a fuel stock report on April 1 — if jet fuel reserves drop below 30 days, expect immediate flight cuts at Manila and Cebu.
- Check airline waivers now: Philippine Airlines, Cebu Pacific, and AirAsia Philippines have not yet issued blanket change fee waivers, but individual rebooking may be available by calling carrier hotlines directly.
- Reroute via regional hubs: Singapore (SIN), Kuala Lumpur (KUL), and Hong Kong (HKG) all offer onward connections to Manila with multiple daily frequencies. Flights from North America to the Philippines typically route through these hubs anyway.
- Monitor strike impact: The March 26–27 transport strike affects ground access to airports, not flight operations. If arriving internationally during this window, confirm ground transport options with your hotel or use airport taxi services rather than public buses.
- Avoid Southern Mindanao entirely: The fuel crisis compounds existing security risks in Southern Mindanao, where the U.S. State Department advises against all travel due to terrorism and kidnapping threats. Stick to Manila, Cebu, Palawan, and Siargao.
Watch: The Department of Energy’s April 1 fuel stock report will reveal whether jet fuel reserves have dropped below the 30-day threshold — if they have, expect immediate flight frequency cuts at Manila and Cebu. If reserves stabilize above 35 days, the crisis may ease without major aviation disruptions.
Questions? Answers.
Are flights from Manila and Cebu currently operating normally?
Yes, as of March 25, 2026, all scheduled flights are operating. The national energy emergency authorizes the government to ration jet fuel and suspend aviation fees, but no flights have been grounded yet. Airlines are monitoring fuel supplies daily.
Will I get a refund if my flight is cancelled due to fuel shortages?
Yes. If an airline cancels your flight due to fuel shortages, you are entitled to a full refund or rebooking at no additional cost under Philippine aviation regulations and international passenger rights frameworks. For flights departing from the EU or UK, EU261/UK261 compensation may also apply if the cancellation causes a delay of three hours or more.
Which airlines are most at risk of cutting Philippines routes?
Philippine Airlines, Cebu Pacific, and AirAsia Philippines are most exposed because they operate the majority of flights from Manila and Cebu. International carriers like Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, and Korean Air are less vulnerable because they can reroute via their home hubs if fuel becomes unavailable in the Philippines.
Should I cancel my trip to the Philippines?
Not yet. Monitor the Department of Energy’s April 1 fuel stock report. If jet fuel reserves drop below 30 days, expect immediate flight disruptions and consider rebooking via Singapore or Kuala Lumpur. If reserves stabilize above 35 days, the crisis may resolve without major aviation impact.
