Quick summary
The US-Israeli war on Iran that began February 28, 2026 has closed Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi airports, canceling over 4,000 daily flights and stranding hundreds of thousands of passengers globally. Jet fuel prices have surged to approximately $173 per barrel, forcing carriers from Air India to Qantas to impose fuel surcharges up to 35% on long-haul routes, with Cathay Pacific, Emirates, Lufthansa, and North American carriers suspending Gulf hub operations through late March or beyond.
Airspace closures across seven Middle Eastern countries have invoked force majeure clauses, halting normal fuel supply contracts and extending recovery timelines to weeks. Travelers with bookings through Dubai, Doha, or Abu Dhabi departing before March 31 face immediate rebooking requirements, while summer fare increases of $200+ on North America–Asia routes take effect March 18.
The conflict erupted with strikes targeting Iranian leadership and has cascaded into the most severe aviation disruption since the 2022 Ukraine airspace closures. Gulf hubs that handle 15% of global connecting traffic went dark within 48 hours.
Emirates suspended operations from Dubai entirely until at least March 3, while Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways resumed limited schedules only after temporary authorizations. The closures affect not just Middle Eastern carriers — Cathay Pacific canceled all Dubai and Riyadh flights through March 31, Japan Airlines suspended Tokyo–Doha until March 21, and Malaysia Airlines pulled Doha service through March 13.
European carriers followed with sweeping cancellations: the Lufthansa Group suspended flights to Tel Aviv through April 2 and to Dubai and Abu Dhabi until March 15. Air France and KLM canceled Tel Aviv and Dubai routes, while British Airways parent IAG pulled Abu Dhabi flights until later this year. North American airlines cut deep — Air Canada suspended Tel Aviv through May 2 and Dubai through March 28, while Delta Air Lines canceled New York–Tel Aviv until March 22.
How the fuel crisis is reshaping airline economics
Brent crude rose 8% to approximately $84 per barrel following the conflict’s outbreak, driving jet fuel to around $173 per barrel — a near-doubling from pre-conflict levels. Aviation turbine fuel accounts for 40% of an airline’s operating costs, and the spike has forced carriers into immediate financial triage.
Asian carriers moved first on surcharges. Air India announced a $4.30 surcharge on domestic flights, $20 on Southeast Asian routes, and up to $200 on North America routes effective March 18. Hong Kong Airlines raised fuel surcharges by 35.2% starting March 12. Qantas and Thai Airways followed with their own fare hikes, though specific amounts were not disclosed.
European carriers present a split picture. Lufthansa and Air France-KLM have hedged the majority of their fuel needs for coming months at fixed prices, insulating them temporarily from the surge. Scandinavian carrier SAS announced “temporary” increases but did not specify amounts. US carriers face greater exposure — a Bernstein analysts’ report noted that United, Delta, and American “do not hedge” fuel costs. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby stated on March 6 that he expects a “meaningful” hit to first-quarter results.
| Carrier | Surcharge amount | Routes suspended | Suspension end date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air India | $4.30–$200 | Domestic, SE Asia, North America | Ongoing |
| Hong Kong Airlines | Up to 35.2% | Not specified | Ongoing |
| Cathay Pacific | Not disclosed | Dubai, Riyadh | March 31 |
| Lufthansa Group | Hedged (no increase) | Tel Aviv, Dubai, Abu Dhabi | April 2 / March 15 |
| Air Canada | Not disclosed | Tel Aviv, Dubai | May 2 / March 28 |
| Delta Air Lines | Not disclosed | New York–Tel Aviv | March 22 |
The airspace closures across the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, and Israel have also triggered force majeure clauses in fuel supply contracts. QatarEnergy, a major supplier to Gulf carriers, halted normal deliveries, compounding the shortage and delaying recovery timelines by weeks.
Between the lines
The Gulf hub model depends on slot-dependent schedules and crew positioning across multiple continents. When Emirates or Qatar Airways suspend operations, they don’t just cancel flights — they strand crew in outstation cities, create empty positioning legs, and lose fifth-freedom traffic rights that feed Asia–Europe connections. A Dubai–Singapore–Sydney rotation doesn’t simply pause; it cascades into deadhead flights and contractual penalties that can take months to unwind.
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Why this disruption hits harder than Ukraine 2022
The 2022 Ukraine conflict forced European carriers to reroute Asia-bound flights south, adding 2–4 hours and 10–20% fuel burn. That disruption lasted six months with persistent rerouting costs but kept hubs operational. The Iran conflict has shut down three of the world’s top 20 airports by passenger volume simultaneously — a structural collapse, not a detour.
Indian carriers like Air India are now rerouting south over Africa to avoid both Pakistani and Middle Eastern airspace, adding significant flight time and fuel consumption to Europe-bound services. Australian travelers face longer connections through Singapore or Bangkok instead of one-stop Dubai routings, extending total journey times by 2–3 hours.
The timing amplifies the damage. The conflict erupted as travelers in North America and Europe book summer Asia-Pacific trips — the industry’s highest-margin season. Transavia France CEO Olivier Mazzucchelli warned on March 11 that the conflict is “already having a negative impact on people’s willingness to travel,” and fare increases will compound the effect. If Brent crude remains above $80 per barrel through April, carriers will have no choice but to pass on costs, potentially suppressing demand during peak booking season.
What travelers must do now
Anyone with bookings through Dubai, Doha, or Abu Dhabi departing before March 31 faces immediate cancellation risk and must initiate rebooking within 24–48 hours.
- Check airline apps immediately: Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, and affected carriers are issuing waivers. Log into your booking to see rebooking options or refund eligibility.
- File for refunds if departing US/Canada: Canceled flights qualify for full refunds under DOT rules. Submit complaints at airconsumer.dot.gov if carriers delay processing.
- Claim EU261 compensation if departing Europe: Flights canceled from EU airports to Dubai, Tel Aviv, or other affected destinations qualify for up to €600 per passenger. File at ec.europa.eu/transport.
- Reroute via Singapore or Bangkok: Use Google Flights or ExpertFlyer to find alternatives avoiding Middle Eastern hubs. Expect 2–3 hour longer journey times and monitor fuel surcharges on new bookings.
- Lock summer fares before March 18: Air India‘s $200 North America surcharge takes effect that date. Other carriers will follow. If you’re booking Asia-Pacific travel for June–August, understanding the broader price surge dynamics can help you time your purchase.
Watch: Emirates‘ schedule filings for April will reveal whether Dubai hub operations resume at full capacity or remain constrained through Q2 — that signal will determine whether Gulf routing returns as a viable option for summer travel.
Questions? Answers.
Are flights through Dubai, Doha, or Abu Dhabi operating in March 2026?
Emirates suspended Dubai operations until at least March 3, with limited resumption uncertain. Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways are operating reduced schedules under temporary authorization, but most connecting flights through these hubs remain canceled through March 15–31 depending on the carrier. Check your airline’s app daily for updates.
Will fuel surcharges apply to tickets I already purchased?
Most carriers apply fuel surcharges only to new bookings made after the announcement date. Tickets purchased before March 12 typically honor the original fare, but check your booking confirmation and airline terms. Air India‘s $200 North America surcharge applies to bookings made on or after March 18.
Can I get compensation if my Gulf hub flight was canceled?
US/Canada travelers qualify for full refunds under DOT rules for any canceled flight. EU travelers departing from EU airports can claim up to €600 per passenger under EU261 regulations, even if the airline cites force majeure — the regulation covers cancellations regardless of cause. Australian travelers should check their booking’s fare rules and contact the airline or CASA.gov.au for guidance.
How long will these disruptions last?
Airspace closures and hub suspensions are tied to the ongoing conflict, with no firm end date. Historical precedent from the 2022 Ukraine airspace closures suggests 6+ months of disruption even after hostilities de-escalate. Fuel price volatility will persist as long as Brent crude remains above $80 per barrel and force majeure clauses remain in effect on supply contracts.
