Quick summary
Jet fuel rationing began April 2, 2026 at four northern Italian airports — Milan Linate, Bologna, Venice, and Treviso — limiting short-haul flights to 2,000 liters per aircraft through April 9. The Strait of Hormuz blockade from the US-Israel-Iran conflict has spiked jet fuel prices to $195 per barrel, prompting Cathay Pacific to raise surcharges 34%, SAS to cancel 1,000 flights in April, and Vietnam Airlines to suspend seven domestic routes.
Europe imports roughly 50% of its jet fuel from the Persian Gulf — supplies that are now trapped. If disruptions persist into May, the International Energy Agency warns shortages will spread Europe-wide, forcing carriers like Lufthansa to ground up to 40 aircraft.
A jet fuel crisis triggered by Middle East conflict escalated into airport-level rationing this week, with four Italian airports imposing strict fuel limits that prioritize long-haul and emergency flights over short-haul services. The restrictions, active from April 2–9, cap Jet A1 fuel at 2,000 liters per aircraft for flights under three hours — enough for roughly one hour of flight time on an Airbus A320 or Boeing 737.
SAS has already canceled 1,000 flights scheduled for April. Vietnam Airlines suspended seven domestic routes starting April 1. AirAsia cut 10% of its schedule.
The root cause sits 3,000 miles southeast: the Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide chokepoint that normally carries 20% of global oil supplies, is now a war zone. Tankers can’t move. Europe, which imports half its jet fuel from Persian Gulf refineries, is running through reserves faster than replacement flows can arrive.
Which routes face the highest cancellation risk
Short-haul European flights departing from Milan Linate, Bologna, Venice, and Treviso are the immediate targets. Italy’s civil aviation authority issued NOTAMs (Notices to Airmen) prioritizing medical evacuations, state flights, and services over three hours — effectively sidelining intra-Europe leisure routes.
Asia-Pacific carriers are responding with surcharges and capacity cuts rather than rationing. Cathay Pacific raised fuel surcharges 34% effective April 1. Thai Airways announced fare hikes of 10–15% across its network. Both airlines operate long-haul widebody fleets (A350s, 777s) where fuel represents 25–30% of operating costs — a $100-per-barrel spike translates directly to ticket prices.
Lufthansa is preparing to ground up to 40 aircraft if shortages spread beyond Italy, which the IEA considers likely by late April. Ryanair, Europe’s largest low-cost carrier, has signaled May-June cuts but hasn’t specified routes.
| Carrier | Action | Scope | Effective date |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAS | Cancellations | 1,000 flights | April 2026 |
| Cathay Pacific | Surcharge increase | 34% network-wide | April 1 |
| Vietnam Airlines | Route suspensions | 7 domestic routes | April 1 |
| AirAsia | Capacity cut | 10% of schedule | April 2026 |
| Thai Airways | Fare increase | 10–15% network-wide | April 2026 |
| Lufthansa | Grounding prep | Up to 40 aircraft | If shortages spread |
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How the 2019 tanker attacks compare
The last time Strait of Hormuz tensions disrupted jet fuel supplies was June 2019, when tanker attacks amid US-Iran escalation spiked prices roughly 20%. Delta and Emirates added surcharges within two weeks. Summer fares on Europe-Asia routes rose 10–15%.
The 2019 crisis eased after two months when strategic petroleum reserves were released and alternative shipping routes opened. No airport imposed rationing — the supply shock was sharp but brief.
April 2026 is structurally different. The conflict involves active military operations rather than isolated attacks. Tankers aren’t avoiding the strait temporarily — they physically cannot transit it. Italy’s rationing signals that European reserves are depleting faster than in 2019, and the IEA’s warning about May shortages suggests no quick resolution is expected.
What to do if you have an April or May booking
The fuel rationing window runs through April 9, but the IEA expects shortages to spread if Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue.
- Short-haul flights from Milan Linate, Bologna, Venice, or Treviso (April 2–9): Check airline notifications daily. SAS has already canceled 1,000 flights — if your booking is affected, EU261 requires the carrier to rebook you or refund. Request rebooking to a non-rationed airport (Rome Fiumicino, Munich) if available.
- Asia-Pacific long-haul (April–May): Monitor Cathay Pacific, Thai Airways, and Vietnam Airlines for schedule changes. Surcharges are already applied to new bookings; existing tickets may see involuntary fare adjustments. If your fare class allows free changes, consider rebooking to June or later.
- Intra-Europe budget carriers (May–June): Ryanair and other low-cost airlines signal cuts but haven’t published specifics. If you’re on a non-refundable ticket, purchase travel insurance that covers supplier failure or check if your credit card offers trip cancellation coverage.
- New bookings: Avoid non-refundable fares on routes touching rationed airports or carriers with announced cuts. Book refundable economy or hold off until the IEA’s mid-April supply report clarifies whether shortages are stabilizing.
Watch: The IEA’s mid-April oil supply loss report will reveal whether March disruption levels are doubling — if so, expect Europe-wide rationing and 20%+ Asia route cuts through summer.
Questions? Answers.
Does EU261 cover cancellations caused by fuel shortages?
Yes, but compensation depends on timing. EU261 classifies fuel shortages as “extraordinary circumstances” — airlines must rebook you or refund your ticket, but cash compensation (up to €600 for flights over 3,500 km) is not required if the shortage was unforeseeable. Italy’s rationing NOTAMs were issued April 2, so cancellations after that date may not qualify for compensation, but rebooking or refund rights remain.
Which airlines are least likely to cancel Asia flights in April-May?
Carriers with diversified fuel supply chains and lower exposure to European rationing: Singapore Airlines, ANA, JAL, and Emirates have not announced capacity cuts as of April 5. Cathay Pacific and Thai Airways are adding surcharges but maintaining schedules. Avoid Vietnam Airlines, AirAsia, and SAS, which have already cut routes.
If I’m booked on a rationed Italian airport, can I switch to a different departure city?
Only if your airline offers a voluntary rebooking waiver or if your ticket is canceled. EU261 requires the airline to rebook you on the next available flight, which may be from a different airport, but you’re responsible for ground transport costs unless the airline explicitly covers them. Check your carrier’s disruption policy — some are offering free rebooking to Rome Fiumicino or Munich for affected passengers.
How long will jet fuel prices stay this high?
Jet fuel at $195 per barrel is tied directly to Strait of Hormuz access. If the conflict de-escalates and tanker traffic resumes, prices could drop 30–40% within 4–6 weeks, similar to the 2019 recovery timeline. If disruptions persist into May, the IEA predicts sustained high prices through Q3 2026, with fares remaining 15–25% above 2025 levels.
