Quick summary
Gulf hub closures since February 28, 2026 have cancelled over 21,300 flights through Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, stranding thousands of Australian and Indian travelers who rely on these hubs for Europe connections. Emirates and Etihad have resumed limited service to 82 and 70 destinations respectively — including Sydney and Delhi — but are restricting transit passengers to confirmed connections through March 19 as missile threats persist across the region.
Gulf carriers handle more than half of all Europe-Australia passenger traffic and roughly a third of Europe-Asia flows. Jet fuel spiked to $225 per barrel before settling near $195, a 30% year-to-date increase that’s already pushing fares higher on alternative routes through Hong Kong and Singapore.
The conflict that erupted across Iran and neighboring states on February 28 has exposed just how dependent Australian and Indian travelers are on Middle Eastern airlines.
When U.S. and Israeli strikes triggered a wave of retaliatory missile launches, the three major Gulf hubs — Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi — effectively shut down scheduled operations for the better part of a week. Over 21,300 flights were cancelled in the first seven days alone, according to industry tracking data, leaving passengers scrambling for alternatives on a corridor that offers few.
For Australians heading to Europe, the math is stark: Gulf carriers move more than 50% of all passengers on the route. There are no nonstop options from Sydney or Melbourne to London outside of Qantas’ Perth-London service, which operates just once daily and was fully booked within hours of the crisis starting. That leaves travelers hunting for seats on Cathay Pacific via Hong Kong, Singapore Airlines via Changi, or Thai Airways via Bangkok — routes that are now seeing demand surges and corresponding fare increases.
What the partial resumption actually means
Emirates announced on March 5 that it had restored service to 82 destinations, including Sydney. Etihad followed with 70 destinations, among them Delhi and Melbourne. The word “restored” requires context.
Both carriers are operating under severe restrictions. Transit passengers are only accepted if they hold confirmed onward connections departing the same day, and even then, the airlines reserve the right to cancel without notice if missile activity resumes. Cargo flights are prioritized over passenger services, and the UAE government has established dedicated flight corridors to minimize exposure to potential strikes — a logistical constraint that limits frequency and capacity.
Through March 19, travelers should assume Gulf hubs are operating at roughly 40% of normal capacity.
The UAE has also mounted 60 emergency repatriation flights and plans more than 80 additional missions to extract stranded nationals and foreign residents. If you’re stuck in Dubai or Abu Dhabi, contact your embassy immediately — commercial rebooking windows are measured in weeks, not days.
Between the lines
The schedule filings tell a different story than the press releases. Emirates registered its Sydney service as “operational” on March 6, but the aircraft type listed was a 777-300ER configured for cargo-priority, not the usual A380. That suggests the airline is using belly hold space for high-value freight — pharmaceuticals, electronics, perishables — and selling whatever passenger seats remain. Expect tight availability and premium pricing until the A380s return to the rotation.
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Why Australia and India are uniquely exposed
The Gulf hubs aren’t just convenient — they’re structural. For Australia, Dubai and Doha function as the primary linkage to Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Qantas codeshares extensively with Emirates, and Qatar Airways operates multiple daily frequencies from Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide. When those hubs close, the entire network collapses.
India’s reliance runs even deeper. The Gulf carriers tap into two massive traffic streams: connecting passengers heading to Europe, and the millions of Indian workers employed across the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Emirates alone operates over 170 weekly flights to nine Indian cities. When Dubai went dark, those workers — many of whom travel home multiple times per year — had no alternatives. Air India and IndiGo don’t have the long-haul capacity to absorb the overflow.
The fuel price surge compounds the problem. Jet fuel hit $225 per barrel at the peak of the crisis and has since settled near $195 — still 30% higher than the start of the year. Qantas noted the spike would have a “significant” impact on profitability despite existing fuel hedges, a signal that fares will rise once current hedge contracts expire. Japan Airlines shares dropped 6.4% and Korean Air fell 10.3% as investors priced in margin compression across the region.
The cargo dimension
Gulf hubs don’t just move people — they’re critical nodes in the global air freight network. Dubai handles over 2.5 million tonnes of cargo annually, much of it high-value goods moving between Asia and Europe. The week-long shutdown cost the industry an estimated $1.8 billion in lost freight revenue, according to preliminary industry estimates.
Pharmaceutical shipments were hit hardest. Temperature-controlled vaccines and biologics can’t wait for alternative routing, and the delays triggered shortages in European markets that rely on Asian manufacturing. The resumption of cargo-priority flights is why passenger capacity remains constrained — the airlines are prioritizing revenue per flight, not passenger volume.
What Australian and Indian travelers should do now
Check rebooking waivers immediately. Emirates and Etihad are offering penalty-free changes for tickets issued before March 1 with travel through March 31. Use the airline apps — phone wait times are exceeding four hours.
Re-route via Hong Kong or Singapore if your Gulf connection is cancelled. Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines have added capacity on London routes, though fares have already climbed 15–20% above pre-crisis levels. For Australian travelers, alternative routing options now favor Asian hubs over the Gulf.
Monitor government repatriation efforts. The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs has a crisis hotline (+61 2 6261 3305) for citizens stranded in the UAE or Qatar. India’s Ministry of External Affairs is coordinating charter flights from Dubai and Doha — check the official MEA Twitter feed for updates.
Avoid booking new Gulf connections until the restriction period ends. Airlines are accepting bookings for travel after March 19, but there’s no guarantee the hubs will be fully operational by then. If you must travel to Europe before April, book direct or via Asian hubs.
Watch: The next round of schedule filings from Emirates and Qatar Airways, due March 12–14, will reveal whether the airlines expect normal operations to resume in April or if the restrictions will extend into the second quarter.
Questions? Answers.
Can I still transit through Dubai or Doha if I have a confirmed booking?
Yes, but only if your onward flight departs the same day and the airline confirms your connection 24 hours before departure. Emirates and Etihad are blocking multi-day stopovers and denying boarding to passengers without same-day connections. Check your booking status daily — the airlines reserve the right to cancel without notice if missile activity resumes.
What happens to my frequent flyer miles if my Gulf carrier flight is cancelled?
Miles are refunded to your account if the airline cancels the flight. If you cancel voluntarily under a waiver policy, the miles return but any co-pay or taxes may be forfeited depending on the fare rules. Qantas Frequent Flyer members with Emirates codeshare bookings should contact Qantas directly — the refund process can take 6–8 weeks.
Are fares to Europe going to stay high even after the Gulf hubs reopen?
Likely yes, at least through mid-2026. The 30% increase in jet fuel prices will flow through to ticket prices once airlines’ existing hedge contracts expire — typically 3–6 months. Carriers also tend to keep fares elevated after a major disruption to recoup lost revenue. Expect Europe-Australia fares to remain 10–15% above 2025 levels until fuel prices stabilize.
