Quick summary
Jet fuel shortages triggered by Middle East conflict have forced airlines to cancel thousands of flights across South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, India, Hong Kong, and Thailand through early May 2026. Air New Zealand alone cut 1,100 flights, while China, Thailand, and South Korea imposed refined oil export restrictions as Brent crude hit US$108.65 per barrel on March 19. Travelers with bookings to these countries face immediate cancellation risk and fare surges of 20–50%.
The Philippines declared a national energy emergency on March 25. Airlines are prioritizing major trunk routes over secondary connections — Vietnam domestic flights and regional Southeast Asia services face the deepest cuts.
Asia-Pacific air travel is collapsing under a fuel crisis that began when Strait of Hormuz shipping halted, cutting off one-fifth of global oil supply. Airlines serving South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, India, Hong Kong, and Thailand have cancelled thousands of flights through early May, stranding tens of thousands of passengers as jet fuel prices outpace crude oil and governments restrict exports to protect domestic reserves.
Air New Zealand announced 1,100 flight cancellations through early May — the largest single-carrier cut disclosed so far.
China restricted refined oil exports first. Thailand followed with a jet fuel export ban. South Korea capped petrol and diesel shipments on March 24, holding back 1.7 million barrels per day of oil and imposing driving restrictions on public servants. Vietnam is rationing fuel and promoting work-from-home policies to reduce travel demand.
The Philippines declared a national energy emergency on March 25.
Which routes are being cut and why fares are spiking
Airlines are prioritizing long-haul trunk routes over secondary connections. Southeast Asia faces rationing risks that favor major hubs like Singapore and Bangkok over domestic and regional services in the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia.
Singapore Airlines maintains higher frequencies on Boeing 787 services to key hubs but has added fuel surcharges. Qantas competes with widebody aircraft on Australia-Asia routes but faces identical shortages. Air New Zealand reduced frequencies on Asia-Pacific routes using A320 and A321neo aircraft, focusing resources on premium long-haul over low-cost competitors.
Ground transport is collapsing alongside air services. Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport operates with only 2,500 of 5,000 taxis active, forcing travelers to rely on airport shuttles. Thailand has seen taxi fares rise 30–60% where vehicles remain available.
| Country | Restriction type | Impact on flights | Ground transport status |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea | Petrol/diesel export caps, driving restrictions | Cancellations on secondary routes | Public servant vehicle bans |
| Thailand | Jet fuel export ban | Regional route cuts, surcharges | 50% taxi shortage at BKK |
| China | Refined oil export restrictions | Reduced frequencies to/from mainland | Data pending |
| Vietnam | Fuel rationing, work-from-home mandates | Domestic flight reductions | Rationing at pumps |
| Philippines | National energy emergency declared Mar 25 | Secondary route cancellations | Data pending |
| New Zealand | Supply shortages (no export ban) | 1,100 Air NZ cancellations through May | Minimal disruption |
Airfares are rising 20–50% on routes still operating as airlines pass fuel surcharges to passengers. The crisis mirrors the 1979 Iranian Revolution, when Strait of Hormuz disruptions caused Asian airlines like Japan Airlines to cut 20% of flights for months and fares to rise 30–50% until Saudi supplies ramped up by mid-1980. No recovery timeline exists for the current crisis.
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How this compares to past fuel crises
The 1979 Iranian Revolution disrupted Strait of Hormuz oil flows and caused global jet fuel shortages. Asian airlines like Japan Airlines cut 20% of flights for months, with fares rising 30–50% until Saudi supplies ramped up by mid-1980. The current crisis mirrors this pattern with initial export curbs by China and Thailand, but no full recovery timeline has emerged.
The difference: 2026 shortages are compounded by Russia airspace closures, which already force airlines to burn 15–20% more fuel on rerouted Asia-Europe services. The dual pressure — restricted supply and higher consumption — is unprecedented.
Jet fuel prices surged faster than Brent crude, which hit US$108.65 per barrel on March 19. Airlines cannot absorb the gap between crude and refined product pricing, leading to immediate capacity cuts rather than gradual fare adjustments.
What to do if you have a booking
Airlines are cancelling flights with less than 14 days’ notice — check your booking status immediately and act within 24 hours.
- Existing bookings to affected countries: Check flight status on airline websites (Korean Air at kal.com, Singapore Airlines at singaporeair.com). Call carrier hotlines directly — Korean Air +82-2-2656-2001. Request free rebooking or refund per DOT or EU261 rules.
- Planning new trips: Avoid secondary routes like Vietnam domestic or regional Southeast Asia connections. Book via Qantas or Singapore Airlines with flexible fares. Monitor Google Flights for surcharges before purchasing.
- Currently in transit: Use airport shuttles only at Bangkok Suvarnabhumi — only 2,500 taxis remain active. Contact airline service desks for re-routing options. Do not rely on ride-hailing apps.
- Passenger rights: EU/UK departures covered by EU261/UK261 for cancellations under extraordinary circumstances (up to €600 for flights over 1,500km with less than 14 days’ notice). US/CA travelers: DOT rules require refunds for cancellations. Australian Consumer Law mandates refunds or rebooking.
Watch: IATA statement on Asia jet fuel allocation — expected late March 2026. If released, prioritized routes resume with surcharges. If delayed, expect more cancellations through May.
Questions? Answers.
Which airlines are cancelling the most flights?
Air New Zealand disclosed 1,100 cancellations through early May 2026 — the largest single-carrier cut announced. Other carriers have not released specific numbers, but Southeast Asian airlines serving secondary routes face the deepest reductions as fuel is prioritized for trunk services.
Are fuel surcharges refundable if I cancel my trip?
Fuel surcharges are part of the ticket price. If the airline cancels your flight, you are entitled to a full refund including surcharges under DOT, EU261, or Australian Consumer Law. If you cancel voluntarily, refund eligibility depends on your fare type — flexible fares typically allow refunds minus a fee, while basic economy fares do not.
How long will the fuel shortage last?
No recovery timeline exists. The 1979 Iranian Revolution caused similar shortages that lasted 8–12 months until Saudi Arabia ramped up production. Current disruptions depend on Strait of Hormuz shipping resuming and Asian governments lifting export restrictions — neither has a confirmed date.
Can I reroute through less-affected hubs?
Yes. Australian hubs like Sydney and Melbourne face fewer cancellations than Southeast Asian airports. Rerouting adds 4–6 hours to North America-Asia trips but reduces cancellation risk. Contact your airline within 24 hours to request re-routing — most carriers waive change fees for disrupted bookings.
