Quick summary
Aer Lingus and Ryanair passengers face potential summer flight cancellations and fare increases as Europe’s jet fuel buffer shrinks to six weeks amid the Strait of Hormuz closure. The International Energy Agency warns shortages could force route cuts on high-frequency services like Dublin-London by May or June, with jet fuel prices doubling to $200 per barrel since the US-Israeli war on Iran began February 28, 2026. Irish travelers with bookings to Florence in May or Calgary in July must monitor airline updates as carriers prepare to trim low-margin routes while fuel hedging protection expires quarterly.
Both airlines maintain 75–80% fuel hedging through Q1 2026, but protection drops each quarter as costs rise. Independent jet fuel stocks at Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp sit at their lowest levels since March 2023, with rerouted tankers via the Cape of Good Hope adding 20 days to delivery times.
Irish carriers brace for fuel crunch as Gulf supplies remain blocked
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most oil and gas tankers has choked off 40% of global oil supply since late February, with the last jet fuel deliveries leaving the Gulf region before March. Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary warned that up to 25% of the airline’s fuel supplies could be jeopardised by the ongoing conflict, though the carrier has since confirmed suppliers are guaranteeing deliveries into mid-May.
If the strait remains closed into May and June, risks to supplies at some airports cannot be ruled out.
Jet fuel now costs airlines $1,800 per ton, up from roughly $900 before the war began. Ryanair is 80% hedged and Aer Lingus — part of the IAG group — is 75% hedged for Q1 2026, but hedging drops quarterly, increasing cost pressure as fuel accounts for 27% of operating expenses. Industry analysts note that unhedged exposure will force fare increases or route reductions by summer.
| Carrier | Q1 hedging | Fuel as % of costs | Exposure risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryanair | 80% | 27% | High from Q2 onward |
| Aer Lingus (IAG) | 75% | 27% | High from Q2 onward |
| US carriers (unhedged) | 0–20% | 30%+ | Immediate pressure |
Airlines for Europe (A4E), representing Ryanair, Aer Lingus, and other major carriers, has urged the EU to enact emergency measures including fuel supply monitoring and aviation tax suspension. The industry group’s plea comes as Lufthansa announced it is grounding aircraft and SAS has already cut 1,000 flights from its schedule.
Flight deals
most people never see
Our AI monitors 150+ airlines for pricing anomalies that traditional search engines miss. Air Traveler Club members save $650 per trip per person on average: see how it works.
Each deal saves 40–80% vs. regular fares:
How the crisis reshapes summer travel from Ireland
Travel advisers report that Ireland is reasonably positioned when it comes to jet fuel stocks, but the country’s inability to refine its own fuel creates vulnerability if other nations restrict access to refined products. The purchasing power of Ryanair and Aer Lingus as two of Europe’s largest fuel buyers may work to Ireland’s advantage in securing supplies.
Industry observers expect airlines to trim high-frequency routes served by multiple daily flights — Dublin-Stansted, Dublin-Heathrow — rather than cancel entire services. These cuts would likely happen more than two weeks in advance to avoid EU261 compensation obligations, with passengers shifted to flights one hour before or after their original booking.
The conflict has forced airlines to reroute away from the Middle East, consolidating flights and reducing frequency. This has significantly impacted travelers heading to Asia and Australia, who are now booking via London with British Airways, Frankfurt with Lufthansa, or Paris with Air France — the traditional routes used before Gulf carriers like Emirates and Etihad dominated long-haul connections.
Western Europe destinations — particularly Spain and Portugal — have benefited from the uncertainty, with strong demand continuing. However, the eastern Mediterranean has suffered, with bookings to Turkey, Cyprus, and Greece down significantly after missile interceptions near Turkey’s border and a drone attack near an RAF base in Cyprus.
Consumer confidence has taken a battering since the start of the year. When consumers are uncertain about the future, holiday bookings traditionally pause, and discretionary purchases like summer holidays are the first to be delayed. The booking window has narrowed, with travelers booking closer to departure dates than previously — a pattern last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021.
For related coverage of Europe’s fuel crisis, see our analysis of the IEA’s six-week warning and KLM’s April 17 cancellations.
What to do if you have summer bookings
The six-week fuel buffer and potential route cuts in May-June make these steps essential for protecting your trip.
- Monitor airline communications: Check email and airline apps daily for schedule changes on bookings to Florence, Calgary, or other destinations. Ryanair and Aer Lingus will notify passengers of cancellations more than two weeks in advance to avoid compensation obligations.
- Book flexible fares if traveling within six weeks: Request flexible tickets via ryanair.com or aerlingus.com that allow free changes. The added cost is minimal compared to rebooking fees if routes are trimmed.
- Verify travel insurance covers flight disruption: Many policies exclude disruption caused by war or geopolitical events. Upgrade policies for a small fee to protect against strike action and fuel-related cancellations.
- Book now if you haven’t secured flights: Prices are unlikely to decrease as airlines pass through fuel costs to late bookers. Current economy return fares from Dublin to Florence sit around €120, while Dublin-Calgary runs approximately €650.
- Consider alternative routings for Asia-Pacific travel: If booked via Gulf hubs, explore rerouting through London, Frankfurt, or Paris. Frequency has dropped but availability remains on traditional European carrier routes.
Watch: The next IEA update on European jet fuel stocks, expected in early May — if levels are reported as critically low, expect Aer Lingus and Ryanair to announce route cuts on high-frequency services. Also watch for the EU Commission’s response to A4E emergency measures, expected soon — approval could signal tax relief that delays fare increases.
Questions? Answers.
Will I get compensation if my flight is cancelled due to fuel shortages?
Under EU261 regulations, passengers departing from Ireland are entitled to €250–€600 compensation for cancellations with less than 14 days’ notice. However, airlines may claim “extraordinary circumstances” if fuel shortages result from war, which could exempt them from compensation. You retain the right to a full refund or rebooking regardless of the cause.
Are transatlantic routes more at risk than European routes?
Both face risk, but for different reasons. Transatlantic routes consume more fuel per flight, making them vulnerable to supply constraints. However, high-frequency European routes like Dublin-London may be trimmed first because airlines can consolidate passengers onto remaining flights without cancelling the route entirely. US carriers with minimal hedging face higher immediate pressure than Irish carriers.
Should I avoid booking through Gulf hubs like Dubai or Doha?
Gulf carriers continue operating but with reduced frequency and rerouted flights that add hours to journey times. If your destination is Asia or Australia, traditional European hub routings via London, Frankfurt, or Paris currently offer more schedule stability, though at higher fares than pre-war Gulf carrier pricing.
