Quick summary
The US never banned Chinese carriers from overflying Russia: the DOT order of 9 October 2025 stayed tentative and was shelved by 14 October 2025, so no restriction is in force as of 15 October 2026. What survives is clock and distance — Finnair puts Shanghai-Helsinki at about eight hours with Russian airspace and more than twelve without.
No sourced fare comparison exists for the two routings, so treat any Chinese-carrier price edge as unproven. Below: the shelved order, the real time gap, and the winter capacity fight that begins on 25 October 2026.
On 25 October 2026 the northern winter season opens, and American, Delta and United have asked the US Department of Transportation to let them park much of their China service.
The fight behind those filings is not a ban on Chinese carriers overflying Russia.
What separates the two sides is time and distance.
For anyone booking a US-China seat this winter, that changes the question. The Chinese airlines’ Russian airspace advantage in 2026 is a scheduling fact, not a documented price cut.
The DOT Russian-airspace ban: proposed, not imposed
The action travellers remember was issued on 9 October 2025 as a tentative DOT order. It proposed barring China-based carriers from using Russian airspace on passenger services to and from the United States. The DOT cited a competitive disparity: US airlines had been shut out, while Chinese carriers kept full access. Cargo carriers were excluded from the proposal, which named only a handful of US-bound routes.
It was widely read as the end of the advantage. It was not. The DOT declined to extend the process on 14 October 2025, according to Reuters reporting, and the final order never appeared. The proposal was shelved amid resistance from other government agencies while trade talks continued.
Nothing in the record since has revived it.
The airspace split predates that order. Russia barred US airlines in 2022 in retaliation for Western sanctions; Chinese carriers were never included and kept full access from February 2022 onward.
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The edge that remains is clock and distance, not a sourced fare
The clearest published comparison comes from Finnair. On 10 September 2026 its chief executive, Turkka Kuusisto, said Shanghai-Helsinki takes about eight hours via Russian airspace and more than twelve around it. For a traveller on that sector, the gap is at least four hours in each direction. He called Chinese access extremely unfair to European carriers forced onto the longer path.
A second example is smaller. Reported on 22 September 2026, a London-Beijing flight that avoids Russian airspace runs roughly 1,000 miles longer and about two hours longer. The figures describe different sectors, so they do not contradict each other. Shanghai-Helsinki and London-Beijing are not the same distance or the same route.
On the trans-Pacific the same mechanism applies, but no published source compares fares on a northern routing against a southern one. Repeating old dollar or percentage figures would be assertion rather than evidence.
The same rerouting shows up on Europe-Asia routes flown around Russian airspace, where the penalty lands in the timetable rather than in the fare.
The 2026 capacity fight and winter waivers
Capacity, not overflight, is where the argument now sits. The current US-China cap is about 50 round-trip flights per week per side.
For the week of 21 September 2026, services between the US and mainland China offered roughly 60,000 weekly seats. That was about 69% below 2019 levels.
Filings on 4 September 2026 show American, Delta and United seeking dormancy waivers to set aside 79 of their 129 weekly China frequencies. That is 61% of their weekly China frequencies. The requests cover the 2026/27 winter season, through 27 March 2027.
The Chinese side has been pushing the other way. Airlines for America asked the DOT on 18 September 2026 to reject Air China’s request for two extra US flights, to New York JFK and Washington Dulles, outside its published schedule. It argued that the flights should be treated as charters rather than expanded scheduled service.
Air China operated flight CA621 Beijing-New York JFK on 19 September 2026 and scheduled a Beijing-Dulles round trip for 25 September 2026. Those flights coincided with President Xi Jinping’s 23-24 September visit to Washington.
The Russian-airspace complaint has not gone away. US airlines cite Chinese carriers’ shorter routes over Russia when they argue against expanding Chinese services, and the winter waiver requests sit inside the same dispute.
Before 25 October, check the winter schedule
The winter booking question is whether the advertised routing and schedule will hold. The operating airline is the party that can confirm both before you pay.
- Ask the airline which routing your specific flight uses; the operating carrier confirms whether Russian airspace is overflown.
- Compare block times rather than marketing language: the published difference between a northern and a southern routing on a long China sector runs from about two hours to more than four.
- Follow the DOT docket on Air China’s two requested US frequencies, for which no decision deadline has been published.
- Watch: any final US order on Russian airspace. A new order would reset every routing calculation on this corridor.
The next hard date for those winter schedules is 27 March 2027, when any waivers granted for the season end.
Reporting by
Questions? Answers.
Is the DOT’s Russian-airspace ban in force?
No. The order issued on 9 October 2025 was tentative only, the DOT declined to extend the process on 14 October 2025, and no final rule followed. As of 15 October 2026 no US restriction stops Chinese carriers from using Russian airspace on US routes.
Do Chinese carriers still fly over Russia on US routes?
Yes. Chinese carriers have held access to Russian airspace since February 2022, when Russia barred US airlines but not Chinese ones. The DOT cited that disparity as a competitive one in its 2025 proposal.
Could the ban come back?
It could be revived, but nothing is pending. The proposal was shelved in October 2025 amid resistance from other government agencies while trade talks continued, and the DOT has published no deadline for deciding Air China’s separate request for two extra US flights.
Which airlines still fly over Russian airspace?
As of 22 September 2026, thirty carriers were still operating through Russian airspace or to airports inside Russia, most of them based in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, plus four European operators: Air Serbia, Belavia, Pegasus Airlines and Turkish Airlines.
What have US carriers asked for this winter?
American, Delta and United filed on 4 September 2026 for dormancy waivers covering 79 of their 129 weekly China frequencies between 25 October 2026 and 27 March 2027, which is 61 per cent of their weekly China frequencies.
